December 12, 2009
2009 Week 13: 0-0
2009 Season: 7-20-1
Units: -22.0
We have reached decision week in the NFL – and no the ‘Capper is not referring to the decision regarding whether to continue reading this NEWSLETTER. For the tens of you remaining, one can only assume comedy is the motivation as at 7 wins and 20 defeats, fiscal prudence should dictate that all of you shut down your respective computer terminals and quickly and calmly gallop away from anything the ‘Capper says. But I digress.
“Decision Week” instead speaks to the NFL public finally learning which of the seeming contenders have the man-sack necessary to win in December. There remain a buffet of franchises who have yet to reveal their true nature. Will these Boyz’ survive what is a brutal closing schedule? Has Denver truly recovered from the mid-season losing streak? Will Pats fans finally pronounce the letter “R” (since it is required to properly pronounce “Loserrrrrrrrr”)? Is the Bolts’ record more a reflection of an easy schedule or a rising team? Much will be revealed this football Sunday. Be patient young Jedi.
Futures:
The ‘Capper has only one long shot Future bet alive and thankfully has ceased reporting on the weekly gyrations of the Rams or Hawks.
Jags 85-1 – Will the real Jags please raise their hands? This 7-5 team has the playoffs in reach despite multiple terrible showings. The real story is that this team has had a few breaks, has slid by very bad teams (KC, STL, OAK) and has been destroyed by average squads (SEA, SF). Jags are minutes from a 1st round playoff loss.
This week’s selections:
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November 26, 2009
2009 Week 11: 0-0
2009 Season: 7-18-1
Units: -18.0
The ‘Capper must apologize folks. I have had the shanks, the yips, the Pisarciks and the Romos all wrapped into one. However, after consecutive non-losing weeks the ‘Capper has ended his losing streak and is back in the cockpit. Let the 2nd half of the season begin!
Futures:
Jags 85-1 – 6-4 and suddenly tied for a wild card spot this team remains a mystery. Secondary remains awful but resurgence of o-line with acronymistic threats MJD and MSW has boosted offense.
Seahawks 48-1 – 0-5 on the road has this team 3-7 with little evidence that a late season rush is possible.
This week’s selection:
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November 8, 2009
2009 Week 8: 0-2
2009 Season: 7-15-1
Units: -13.0
Futures:
Jags 85-1 – 3-4, wow is this team broken; o-tackles are inconsistent, still no pass rush and secondary is collection of back-ups. Apparently, David is no longer permitted to audible out of running plays; embarrassing.
Seahawks 48-1 – here is how bad the NFC West is – the Hawks’ are only 2 games out of 1st place despite being 2-5. If this division stopped playing, would anyone really notice? Not one of these squads can even sell out their home games. As with the Jags, embarrassing.
Can the ‘Capper get a “W”? Wiseguys are getting beaten, sportsbooks are closing operations and lines are inflating to unprecedented levels. Why? Because favorites keep winning and they are winning by wide margin. John Q. Public bets the favorites; the bigger the favorite, the more the average sports fan salivates. If that favorite happens to be a team with a big public profile – Pats, Giants, Eagles, Steelers – then the line pushes even wider. The professionals like the doggies. Unfortunately, this year the doggies are standing over us and lifting their mangy hind legs. A golden retriever shower is not pleasurable and we must adapt or die a terrible, wet, miserable death.
The ‘Capper is selling out people. I am abandoning my preference for all things doggie, ignoring sportsbetting dogma and throwing down my dwindling cash on a couple of good teams that should win big. I’m covered in chalk, riding the bandwagon and racing with the front-runner. I feel dirty all over.
This week’s selection:
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November 1, 2009
2009 Week 7: 0-2-1
2009 Season: 7-13-1
Units: -10.0
Futures:
Jags 85-1 – 3-3 Vince Young returns to either help or hurt the Jags’ playoff chances as the next contest is versus the winless Titans.
Seahawks 48-1 – ‘Capper stated before year started that Hawks’ success hinged on healthy Matt and healthy Walter. Nuff said.
Streaks feel fascinating when they occur. Folks wait and watch to see whether the run will continue or falter. Whether it’s a quarterback completing a series of passes, a defense holding opponents scoreless over a stretch of the December or even the celebrated ’07 Pats managing 16 straight regular season wins, streaks of all shapes capture a fan’s attention like little else in sports. The rest of the world is shut out, senses narrow and only the streak matters.
This week we will see the convergence of a multitude of streaks and the very fabric of time and space may not survive the collision. Every NFL season has streaks; but perhaps never before have we seen such a dichotomy of greatness – The Colts, Broncos and Saints – and sadness – Rams, Lions, Browns, Raiders.
Given the disparity and the sheer number of teams in on either side of the continuum, streak-busting conflicts naturally occur. We have several examples of such this week. However, it is not simply the intersection of streaks includes a 3rd contestant…
A new streak has sprung on the periphery of our sacred NFL one that impacts many, both emotionally and financially. At risk this week is another streak one that is fascinating, painful and personally embarrassing – of course, I am describing the consecutive losing weeks by the ’09 version of the ‘capper. (lower case “c” for the ‘capper – I do not deserve the upper case given recent performance)
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October 25, 2009
2009 Week 6: 1-3
2009 Season: 7-11-0
Units: -7.5
Futures:
Jags 85-1 – 3-3 after surviving OT affair against the Rams. In playoff picture but hard to have faith in this squad.
Seahawks 48-1 – Who is this team? A 41-0 win one week followed by a 3 TD loss. 2-4 would seem a stretch for playoffs but ‘Capper believes both 49rs and Zona will regress.
This season is killing the ‘Capper. Simply do not have a good read on what appear to be ebbs and flows unlike any year witnessed this decade. While a few teams have managed some consistency many have demonstrated sufficient mood swings to warrant psychotropic drugs.
Forget parity people we have insanity. For those seeking to earn some cash, the ‘Capper remains convinced that this volatility can be exploited (despite my embarrassing attempts to prove that theory). This is the 8th year of the NEWSLETTER and only during one prior year did we have this poor a start. We need a turnaround.
The normal approach would be to use data – particularly turnovers, rushing statistics, injuries and schedules – to predict which below radar teams are aligning for a positive run. I must admit; in the wee hours the ‘Capper, curled in fetal position muttering unintelligently about Cover-3 defenses, zone blocking, wildcat offenses and Mark Bavaro, has been questioning his own faith. Exasperated by the bizarre fluctuations of this season I have debated abandoning my math, my studies and my nearly 8 years of positive results. But I am the ‘Capper – proud, strong and relentless in pursuit of the cash. My prognostications thus far in 2009 may have blown massive chunks, but I have endless confidence that armed with the proper cleaning equipment, I can clean up this mess and climb back above sea level.
We go forth and conquer people.
This week’s selections:
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October 18, 2009
2009 Week 5: 1-2
2009 Season: 6-8-0
Units: -4.5
Futures:
Rams 200-1 – Done and done
Jags 85-1 – Schizophrenic does not begin to describe this squad.
Seahawks 48-1 – Entirely different offense when Matt is on field.
‘Capper is frustrated people – too many close games finishing the wrong way. While Indy destroyed the Titans, the ‘Capper failed to predict that the Pats would give away a 10 point lead or that the Jets defense would choose Week 5 to have their defense absolutely implode. Disgusting. It has already entered the public chatter but we are seeing an unprecedented separation between the great and the bad. League expansion should not even be considered until the Raiders, Chiefs, Redskins, Lions and Browns return to respectability.
Limited rhetoric this week; let’s just get to the picks.
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October 10, 2009
2009 Week 4: 1-2
2009 Season: 5-6-0
Units: -3.0
Futures:
Rams 200-1
It’s going to bother me to report on this team each week; let’s hope the league invokes the rarely used (outside of little league) “mercy rule” and forfeits the remaining contests for the good of the game.
Jags 85-1
Remarkable that this squad is 2-2 given the embarrassing performances during the opening two weeks of the season. If the offensive line gets healthy this appears a team capable of living up to our expectations – they are showing life running the ball, stopping the run and young David is true when given a second of calm in the pocket.
Seahawks 48-1
Matt returns this week but odds remain long for a quick return to winning for this 1-3 squad. Defense has real ability but a constant stream of Seneca Wallace 3 and outs will exhaust even the mightiest of defenders.
Recap:
How can the ‘Capper post Ws when the doggies are failing to deliver? When a favorite has won this year they have covered at a rate of 35-8 ATS (20-3 ATS last two weeks). What does that mean? It means that so far this season if you have a doggie in mind, forget the close or backdoor cover. You need a victory. Straight up doggie delights are difficult to come by particularly as the spreads rise. And the #s this year are growing with each passing week. Historically, playing the chalk is not a path to long term financial health and the ‘Capper tends to avoid laying wood. If this trend continues the pishka could take a serious hit.
The league appears more polarized than recent seasons with a wide breach between the strong and the weak. 11 new coaches and numerous defensive and offensive scheme changes have left much of the league in transition. While the Jets are a nice story and the Broncos are surprising, the Chiefs, Rams, Lions, Browns and Bucs do not appear likely to make a quick transition. ‘Capper does not believe he has before seen so many teams “rebuilding”. Of course “rebuilding” is a euphemism for “we suck but admitting there is no hope to our fan base, employees and corporate sponsors tends not to promote job security.”
While several puzzles remain, already the playoff cast is beginning to take shape. The goal is to determine which teams the public is under or overestimating. Let us go forth and conquer, go with the recent trend and support some favorites to see if we can ride out these doggie doldrums.
This week’s selections:
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October 4, 2009
2009 Week 3: 2-1
2009 Season: 4-4-0
Units: -1.5
Futures:
Rams 200-1
This team is awful. Shame. This team had a shot in two of their games but with injuries piling up and clear offensive confusion, already this team is out of contention. Still will support this team in the right spots, particularly as spreads increase and Spags increasingly teaches this defense, but playoff dreams are over.
Jags 85-1
No idea what to make of this squad. O-line has not improved and this secondary is embarrassing… yet there appears potential as Sims has talent on the outside and MJD is electric. With Steelers’ suffering and Titans’ winless, playoff spot not impossible.
Seahawks 48-1
As we wrote back in August success of this team would largely depend on health of Hasselbeck and Walter Jones. Seneca is starting. If that continues, season is done.
Recap:
Solid week 2 by the ‘Capper. Only blemish can be blamed squarely on the terribly inaccurate arm of Trent “Oooh look I went to Stanford” Edwards. Here is what the ‘Capper wrote about this game last week,
“Saints secondary remains awful and Bills rushing attack should result in both TO and Lee Evans having one-on-one opportunities out wide. One big play will get us a cover if not an outright W.”
Of course, Trent managed to miss wide open opportunities down the field time and again – TO did not have a catch for the first time since the 90s despite twice being wide open down the sidelines. Result was a wasted effort by a very game Bills’ defense.
On the plus side, both Indy and Pats managed easy victories to earn ‘Capper his first winning week of the ’09 season. We’re starting to see the gaps across the good, the bad and the ugly but of course many questions remain early in the ’09 campaign.
- Who are the Jaguars? A team that can put up 30+ against Houston or the utterly inept squad that failed to show up versus Zona or Indy? Beat an angry 0-3 Titans team and I may start to believe.
- Are the Broncos a quality team that has beaten bad teams? Or… are the Broncos a bad team that received a miracle in week 1 followed by wins versus two teams not yet good enough to be considered terrible?
- Why on earth is a meaningless back-up ex-con quarterback receiving more press than the current starting quarterback for the Iggles? Kolb is getting it done – stop talking about Mikey BowWow!
- Will the Niners falter? This team should be 3-0, the defense is playing with ferocity and QB Hill continues to avoid mistakes while making solid 3rd down throws. Love the energy from this team and would love to see them compete all year long.
- Is Cinci back? After having a win stolen from them in Week 1, this team has beaten both the Pack and Steelers. Defense is playing well and o-line is opening lanes for prior malcontent CBenson. Palmer clearly not his old self but Chad has been quiet and overall team arrests are down.
- How good are the Saints? Brees looks brilliant and pass rush is 180 degrees from ’08; however, defensive secondary remains a question. Given schedule to-date, still have to wonder whether this team is top caliber. Big test is this week.
- Are the Jets the AFC East’ best? Houston, New England and Tennessee combined = 33 points given up. Wow. Sanchez only 2 INTs year-to-date…
Good gamblers study the schedule and make adjustments for quality of competition. However, the real money is finding that rare spot where it makes sense to support the g-d awful of this league. As always, see which way the public wind is blowing people, and toss your cash on the opposite side.
This week’s selections:
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September 27, 2009
NEWSLETTER – Week 3
2009 Week 2: 1-2
2009 Season: 2-3-0
Units: -2.0
Fascinating to watch the fair weather fans scream, cry, cheer or lament the fortunes of their preferred NFL squad. Overreactions spread faster than piggy flu as the uneducated attempt to extrapolate full year records based on the season’s first two weeks. Fans are boneheaded binary beasts either eagerly anticipating the 2010 draft or navigating EBay for Super Bowl tickets. We are starting to learn a few things at this early juncture, however, more remains unknown than known. Biases are biting the public badly right now; Recency, Availability, Confirmation, etc. – we disproportionately give weight to what we have seen, what we know and what fits our pigskin world view. Said differently, the ‘Capper looks to which way the public winds are blowing, and firmly goes the other way.
This week’s selections:
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September 20, 2009
NEWSLETTER – Week 2
2009 Season: 1-1-0
Units: -.05
Handicapping Week 1 can prove challenging thanks to unbridled offseason optimism combined with the illusions created by preseason action. Week 2 presents a different test as fans, commentators and bookies leap, jump and face-plant into a sea of unsubstantiated conclusions. 1-0 teams are undefeated and headed to the playoffs (see Niners, Cowboys, Falcons) and 0-1 teams are on the verge of utter collapse (see Texans, Bears, Rams). Those of us bright enough to remain impartial, recognize that the truth lies somewhere in between.
- Yes, Philly will be good this year but Jake the Garter Snake handed the game over. Gangreen is also one cracked rib from mediocrity. One more shot to DNabb’s chest and within a month someone will be singing “Who Let the Dogs Out!”
- The Saints are not yet Super Bowl contenders. 48-25, 31-13, 34-7, 38-14, 38-20, 47-10, 42-7. Those numbers are either my high school locker combination or the final scores to 7 of the 16 losses the Detroit Tigers suffered in 2008. Detroit remains very bad – the Saints are an unknown.
- The final score was 28-0 but the Rams were a 12th man away from heading into the half at 7-7. 10 penalties, a missed FG and an erased defensive TD. Spags will do better.
- It makes for nice journalism to join Gisele and suck from the teat of the Golden Boy but the story of the Pats’ Week 1 loss involves mediocre defense, a lacking running game and the subtraction of starting LB Mayo. This team is good, but not ’07 good.
- Near perfection on 3rd down and an easy victory during your first NFL is a remarkable feat. The math suggests that Sanchez is likely to get dirty before he ascends to superstardom (not to be confused with dirty sanchez of course). Virtually every great QB has needed years, not weeks, to win on the road with any consistency.
The point my pigskin passionate plebeians is that a sample size of one is insufficient to reach conclusions regarding what will become of the ’09 NFL Season. The ‘Capper will stick with this preseason reads and bet on those teams he expects to rebound in ’09 – Rams, Seattle, Jags – and will ferociously bet against those teams he projects to regress – Cardinals, Dolphins, Falcons. For the teams that may realize public expectations (whether high or low), the ‘Capper will remain patient until attitudes shift, the public reacts, spreads move and money can be earned.
If you’re in a public place people, look around. Those are the lemmings we intend to bet against.
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