2011 Newsletter Week 5

Week 4: 2-1

YTD Season: 7-6-1

 

Consecutive winning weeks has the ‘Capper breathing above sea level again.  Public continues to view this season through the lens of last year’s results.  It won’t be long before strong performances by the Bills, Lions, and Raiders are no longer seen as surprises.

 

‘Capper is tired people so lower expectations on the color commentary, witticisms, naughty humor and gratuitous anti-Philly rhetoric.  Atoning can be exhausting.

 

Need some R&R but won’t miss a week of action.

 

This week’s selections:

2011 Newsletter Week 4

Week 3: 3-1

YTD Season: 5-1-1

 

Strong week 3 showing by the ‘Capper hitting a solid 3 of 4 contests.  As predicted Saints proved too big a step in class for Texans.  Both Raider Nation and the Hawks put up big efforts to earn straight-up home doggie victories.  Only the Bears failed to stay within the number as a brilliant end of game punt return was negated by a phantom holding call.

 

Story lines aplenty early in this NFL season; in case you’ve missed a few:

 

Cam justifying all that money he earned in college from his rookie contract

Brady gets a haircut

Vick suffers a boo boo

Chris Johnson dines and dashes

Rex impersonates an NFL quarterback

Romo borrows Wolverine’s healing factor

and…  Eli wins NFC offensive player of the week.  (suck it dream team)

 

‘Capper back to sea level people and feeling good.   Unlike week 3 where the ‘Capper supported three separate big doggies, it will be a week of big a$$ favorites.  Don’t be scared, lay the lumber and cash tickets.

This week’s selections:

2011 Newsletter Week 3

Week 2: 1-2-1

YTD Season: 2-4-1

Awful two week showing by the ‘Capper.  No excuses people.  While the Titans showed up well, Buffalo chose to only play a half a game, Indy grabbed early lead in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes and KC finally kept a game close (for one quarter at least).

Education week in the NFL.  Quite a bit should be learned over the coming 24 hours about the litany of 2-0 teams who failed to reach the ’10 playoffs – the Redskins, Lions, Bills, and Texans.

Skins on the road face Dallas on MNF.  Will Boyz’ be flat after last week’s Romoroics and can the Skins’ offense continue to bring the Rexy back?

While KC showed better than the box score would suggest, Lions had little trouble and now travel as a road favorite within the division for the first time since leather helmets (for football mind you) were in fashion.

The Bills are so damn likable.  Fitz is Rich Gannon re-borne, Stevie Johnson is a stud and Chan Gaily is receiving much deserved praise despite the ‘Capper’s bashing of his hiring nearly one year ago.

The Texans must either have found a genie or incriminating pictures of Roger Goodell.  The Jags dump Garrard, Indy loses Peyton and the Titans are off of 8-8 and 6-10 consecutive seasons.  Major step up in class against Saints this week will prove telling.

‘Capper believes only the Texans will make the playoffs of this quartet though the Lions will be close.

This week’s selections:

2011 Newsletter Week 2

Week 1: 1-2
YTD Season: 1-2

Answer me this loyal readers, what do the following lines have in common?

Teddy Bruschi’s comments about Ocho Cinco
Coach Jim Harbaugh’s complaints about lack of highlight coverage for 1-0 Niners
Denver fans tossing up billboards calling for St. Timothy
Panther fans believing Cam is heading to the pro bowl
Donovan McNabb is done
The Colts are headed for Andrew Luck

Holy Overreaction Batman!

‘Capper had a lousy opening week performance people. While the Bills dominated at KC, the Titans were anything but mighty and the Falcons fell even further below the Bears on the food chain. Surprises were many in week 1; Cam was remarkable, Rex was competent, Matty Ice melted, the Ravens soared and Houston crushed old man Kerry.

None of the winners are as good as the public believes and none of the losers are as bad. Throw money on the dogs this week people; overreactions end by week 4, so hurry up and get in line for some action.

This week’s selections:

2011 Newsletter Week 1

We can breathe again.

There are those who have claimed nothing was lost this past offseason. They point to a largely intact preseason (Hall of Fame game notwithstanding) and a normal kickoff weekend and shout down those among us who felt cheated by CBA-related distractions.

F them.

I love the stretch between the annual draft and the first preseason (so-called) game.  There are OTA reports, contract disputes, rookie hazing, and free agent rumors.  There are radio talk show hosts with homer predictions and the callers offering equally biased support.  And of course, there are the clichés.  The wonderful clichés…

They’re on the hot seat.

<insert team name> faces a make or break year.

<insert team name> might be this year’s Cinderella story.

So let’s quickly re-cap our abbreviated offseason with an abbreviated run down of what was stupid, which teams might surprise and who to place some action on for the opening week of the National Football League.

The stupid:

Plax; stop doing interviews.  You were in jail for shooting yourself with a gun that you had smuggled into a nightclub.  I’m sorry Coughlin did not cuddle you and Eli failed to write.

Bears; hugely under cap yet you permit your o-line to weaken and bring Roy Williams to boost WR group?  Bad case of the Martz.

Arian Foster; no more tweets please.  Be seen not heard.

Colts GM/Owner; massive contract with $50M+ of guarantees and you did not think to have a doc glance at Manning’s neck?

Redskins’ Shanny; Beck versus Grossman is not Montana versus Young.

Surprises:

Browns: Brownies in the playoffs?  Outside of home division, schedule is weak (thank you NFC West) and both diminished Colts and Jags on the calendar.

Cardinals: Cards win the West?  Nucleus of prior successful teams remains in place and free agent additions Bradley and Kolb suggest the one team in the miserable NFC West who wants to win this year.

* side note: Lions are a trendy pick to post a winning record and make playoffs. ‘Capper thinks 9-7 is very possible; however, hype from media on the return of the roar likely will ruin any spread value.

Fantasy:

By the end of this year you will know the names of offensive players: Julius Thomas, Jared Cook, Andre Roberts, Ed Dickson, and David Nelson.

This week’s selections:

Super Bowl XLV NEWSLETTER

Regular Season: 30-25-0

Playoffs: 7-3

Overall: 37-28-0

 

Welcome loyal readers to the last dance of the 2010-2011 NFL season.  The ‘Capper has posted a solid record with a particularly strong performance over the playoffs.  However, finding cash on Super Sunday offers a different challenge.  It is not difficult for professionals to find value over a typical Sunday card.  There is sufficient variety to isolate nuggets of opportunity.  Even the playoffs offer enough choice to play against public sway and poorly placed “conventional wisdom.”  The Super Bowl is different.  Betting value tends to lie not in the side but rather in the exceptionally robust list of proposition bets.

 

To crush the books on Super Sunday the ‘Capper has long applied a simple approach.  Tell yourself a plausible story as to how the game might transpire and bet high-odds proposition bets that support that story.  Don’t hedge with bets counter to your narrative, avoid wagers of random chance (e.g. coin flip) and limit dead money from betting against yourself (e.g. multiple wagers on which player might score the first TD).

 

What’s the ‘Capper story?   The magical ride of Mr. Rodgers and his pack of cheese comes to an end in a closely fought defensive battle.

 

This week’s selection:

Conference Championships

Regular Season: 30-25-0

Playoffs: 6-2

Overall: 36-27-0

 

 

Packers v Bears and Jets v Steelers.

 

Good stuff.

 

The playoffs are nearing conclusion and the remaining teams are all solid.  ‘Capper tends to rely on specific matchups at this point in the season as motivation, health and schedule timing tend not to have relevance.  Let’s jump into the games.

Division Week

Regular Season: 30-25-0

Playoffs: 4-0

Overall: 34-25-0

Can the ‘Capper get an amen?

As much loathing as we’ve heaped upon the alleged pigskin punditry, the ‘Capper must give thanks.  For it is in part due to the blathering across the likes of Bradshaw, Aikman, Simms, Buck and Ditka that folks like me can earn a return.  Schedule timing dictates a great deal in the NFL and only an artist develops a sense for that special rhythm.  “Any given Sunday” is a cliché as old as the very sport it describes; any one team can beat another as the gap between best and worst in the NFL is too small, the bounce of the ball too unpredictable and the impact of a single play too influential to perfectly predict a single game’s outcome.  Last weekend was bad timing for the Eagles, Saints and Chiefs.  Can you hear the rhythm for this week?

This week’s hype reflects the same poor thinking that led to so many Wildcard round “surprises”.   Are the Seahawks to be this year’s Cinderella? Are the Pats really unstoppable?  Naah.

This week’s selections

Wildcard Week

Regular Season: 30-25-0

Playoffs: 0-0

Care to dance?

The pigskin postseason is upon us loyal readers.  Four entertaining matchups from which the public can generate a cornucopia of made-for-tv story lines.

Will Rex finally beat Peyton?

Can the Jets live up to the preseason, regular season, four seasons, add seasoning hype?

Who else did Favre harass in the Jets organization?

Will every storyline be Jets related?

The near unanimity of the talking heads triggers the ‘Capper’s gag reflex.  The average NFL analyst crew now holds more roster spots than the average NFL team; yet, parity remains supreme even among the “experts”.   We get it!  Yes, it’s a long flight from New Orleans to Seattle, it should be loud in Kansas City, Peyton’s performance will likely determine outcome versus NY and Vick is a walking, sprinting, galloping controversy.  Phew.  Can we discuss real stuff now?

This week’s selections:

NEWSLETTER Week 16

Attention loyal readers, the ‘Capper is on vacation and
currently too relaxed to generate the anger necessary to compose a
proper Newsletter. Apologize for the abbreviated edition – I do
love the card and hope to recover from consecutive weeks of bad
beats. Fire at will and I’ll be sure to pour a little out for my
homies who can’t be here with me on the beach. Fresh from the sands
of the Caribbean here are this week’s selections:

Take KC -4.5 at
home versus Titans Betting public thinks Titans have leveled the
listing ship with W over hapless Texans. Me no think so. Coach
Fisher is moving on, locker room divided over VY and there are no
playoffs in sight. Line is short due to last week’s revenge win;
but that was first victory since October. KC meanwhile on verge of
first playoff appearance since 2003. This game will swing on
turnovers and a big rushing edge for KC. Expect Collins to suffer
greatly and fantasy fools by all means start Bowe, Charles and even
Thomas Jones.

Take Cleveland +3.5 at home versus Ravens Easy to see
letdown as Ravens fresh from success against defending champs.
Browns playing last meaningful game should bring juice against
division rival. Once upon a time game between old and new Browns
would have elicited real media attention but years of Browns
underperformance has taken sizzle from this matchup. Colt avoids
mistakes and running game will eat clock; Ravens returned to
reliance on Ray which should only further shorten game time and
lower total. Lower point total favors the doggie here. Browns have
been competitive all year and this will be there Super Bowl. Take
the points.

Additional Selections:
Cincinnati v Bolts under 43
Rams v Zona over 39.5

Happy Holidays people, ‘Capper out.