Regular Season: 30-25-0
Playoffs: 0-0
Care to dance?
The pigskin postseason is upon us loyal readers. Four entertaining matchups from which the public can generate a cornucopia of made-for-tv story lines.
Will Rex finally beat Peyton?
Can the Jets live up to the preseason, regular season, four seasons, add seasoning hype?
Who else did Favre harass in the Jets organization?
Will every storyline be Jets related?
The near unanimity of the talking heads triggers the ‘Capper’s gag reflex. The average NFL analyst crew now holds more roster spots than the average NFL team; yet, parity remains supreme even among the “experts”. We get it! Yes, it’s a long flight from New Orleans to Seattle, it should be loud in Kansas City, Peyton’s performance will likely determine outcome versus NY and Vick is a walking, sprinting, galloping controversy. Phew. Can we discuss real stuff now?
This week’s selections:
Take the Seattle Seahawks +10.5 at home versus the New Orleans Saints
This likely won’t be a popular pick but the ‘Capper ain’t looking for votes, just cash. The difference between a chimp and a person is 1% of genetic code (or so I’m told – last science class was high school). Same might be said for NFL teams. Take any two NFL teams, assume absolute maximum motivation and perfect health and you’ll find a very close game. We have a ‘Hawks team that is undeniably inferior to the returning champs; however, the cocktail is right for the doggie to bite.
Motivation
Hawks: No pressure, rah rah coach, home field, hosting the champs
Saints: Might Super Bowl complacency have champs look ahead?
Health
Hawks: Not a single reported injury
Saints: 3rd string RB, several missing defensive starts, missing TE
Saints have been a terrible road favorite last few years – 6-13-1 last 20 ATS. Saints just not supportable at this number given inconsistent play, an underperforming defense and an awful special teams unit. Mike Williams and Leon Washington alone can generate 14 points for the Hawks. Add another 10~ and we have a cover. Grab the points.
Take the Baltimore Ravens -3 at the KC Chiefs
KC was a popular selection among sharps all year; with a forgiving schedule (thank you NFC West), a seasoned coaching staff and a steady running game, 10+ wins seemed within reach. It was. This is where the story ends as worst to first teams often stumble with their box step upon reaching the dance.
Nothing fancy about this selection. Ravens simply have faced superior competition and have performed with greater consistency form start to finish. KC had the chance to feast upon the likes of Denver (twice), St. Louis, Seattle, and Arizona all during the season’s 2nd half. In fact, KC only faced two playoff teams (Indy and Seattle) all year. This team has not been tested and yet will face a Ravens team that played 6 playoff teams this year along with another 10 win squad (Tampa Bay).
I won’t spend much time on matchups here. If the Ravens were playing the version of the Chiefs we saw during the season’s opening half, I might have a different perspective. The second half Chiefs declined substantially both on defense and special teams. Ravens should win field position battle and will over-commit to stopping the run (particularly to offensive right side where KC is strong and Baltimore is weak). Cassel has proven ‘Capper wrong with steady play much of the year, but the weapons don’t exist here for him to carry the day. Ravens beat this team up, win war up front and use turnovers and a steady diet of Ray Rice (and Derrick Mason) to win by margin.
Take the Eagles versus the Packers UNDER 46.5
Two very good teams meet in Philly and real question for ‘Capper is whether Packers have any gas left for this game. Green Bay competed in two play-in games just to earn the trip to the Linc. Eagles meanwhile have rested, both physically and mentally, in preparation for a revenge home game. Great spot. Hesitation to back the kids in green stems from two places:
* The ‘Capper hates them with the red hot intensity of a 1000 suns
* Rodgers will have open WRs down field; he single-handedly can read a coverage, line up his protection and release a well-timed dart to any of his four very capable WRs.
Alas, ‘Capper expects a Philly surge from the gate, a great Pack half-time speech and a second half battle between two very solid defenses. Both teams generate pressure and have solid secondaries. Public expecting a shootout pushing # past 46. If this game is close, it’s the defenses not the much-hyped QBs that will dictate the pace.
Fat Andy is all about defense in the playoffs. During his tenure, he’s hosted nine playoff games; Six of those games fell under 37 and none have ever passed 43. Packers meanwhile have permitted 15 points/game during 2nd half of the season. Love when the public pushes a number up, up and away…
Additional Selection:
Take the Jets ML +110 at Indy
Foot fetish, Hard Knocks, DUI, Jen Sterger, Tripping… Since the Raiders of a generation ago have we seen an NFL team this rife with scandal perform this well? It doesn’t matter, this team is solid (though not close to as good as Rex would have us believe). ‘Capper sees similarities between Indy and Pack; does Peyton’s Place have anything left?
‘Capper’s opinion on this game admittedly is weak as neither outcome would surprise. Arguments for Jets are as follows:
- Should win field position all day; vastly superior special teams both kicking and returning.
- Indy secondary is awful; expecting Sanchez to have time in the pocket against Tampa 2 and to have wide-open WRs. Whether he accurately can hit those WRs is the game-deciding question.
- Indy faced vastly inferior competition over course of regular season. Jets are better tested.
X – factor: Expecting Manning to be in shotgun 3 WR/1 TE sets ALL day. Jets’ secondary is weak behind Cromartie and Revis and Indy will focus efforts accordingly. Will White and Tamme make enough plays? Methinks not.
Bet the least-likable team in the NFL. Jets on the money line.
‘Capper out.
