Regular Season: 30-25-0
Playoffs: 7-3
Overall: 37-28-0
Welcome loyal readers to the last dance of the 2010-2011 NFL season. The ‘Capper has posted a solid record with a particularly strong performance over the playoffs. However, finding cash on Super Sunday offers a different challenge. It is not difficult for professionals to find value over a typical Sunday card. There is sufficient variety to isolate nuggets of opportunity. Even the playoffs offer enough choice to play against public sway and poorly placed “conventional wisdom.” The Super Bowl is different. Betting value tends to lie not in the side but rather in the exceptionally robust list of proposition bets.
To crush the books on Super Sunday the ‘Capper has long applied a simple approach. Tell yourself a plausible story as to how the game might transpire and bet high-odds proposition bets that support that story. Don’t hedge with bets counter to your narrative, avoid wagers of random chance (e.g. coin flip) and limit dead money from betting against yourself (e.g. multiple wagers on which player might score the first TD).
What’s the ‘Capper story? The magical ride of Mr. Rodgers and his pack of cheese comes to an end in a closely fought defensive battle.
This week’s selection:
Take the Pittsburgh Steelers +3 versus the Green Bay Packers
I’m sure rookies across the country are stuck with +2.5 on this game; they deserve to get crushed for not shopping for a better number. Let me start by offering that this line feels wrong and strikes the ‘Capper as more of a reflection of public hype than on the field reality. These two teams are very even and in fact, over the last month the Steelers have performed at a higher level (due to caliber of competition; check out www.footballoutsiders.com). The numbers suggest the Steelers to be the better overall team, with vastly more playoff experience, a harder 2010 schedule and clear rushing advantage. However, it’s not always just in the numbers so…putting the number aside, what matchups sway the ‘Capper to the doggie? Read and learn.
#1 Mendenhall will have success today
The much maligned Pittsburgh offensive line deserved it’s share of ridicule over the course of the year as the pocket repeatedly disintegrated around Big Ben. The public discourse is that the Steelers’ weak and injured offensive line will prove ineffective versus the Capers’ led front 7. While, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that Ben will face pressure during passing downs, the ‘Capper is unconvinced that the same will be true when the ball stays on the ground.
Beyond young Pouncey, both tackles, back-up Scott and ancient Flozell “Leg Whip” Adams were solid much of the year during drive blocking situations. In fact, Pitt was seventh in the league on runs to left end, while the Packers were 19th against them; meanwhile, Pittsburgh was fifth on runs to right end, where Green Bay was 16th. Don’t ask these guys to pull, hit the 2nd level or take on a speeding corner, but straight ahead against an opposing end or linebacker and these guys got the job done. Ask the Jets. (I’m already nauseas knowing we will have to hear commentators say, “this is Steelers football” the first time Mendy takes a carry for 4 yards off tackle)
#2 Pittsburgh Special Teams
On kickoffs we have one of the worst coverage units in the league (Green Bay) versus one of the better return units in the league (Pitt). If this game holds to form, it means that Ben will start drives from his own 32 yard line. Expect the Pack to start back inside the 25. It does not sound like much but it will require one extra first down by Green Bay per drive to reach scoring position. With two high quality defenses, one unconverted 3rd down is meaningful. On field goals we have two solid performers and Pitt is the better of the two teams on punt coverage (advantage was bigger before Sepulveda went down with an injury).
#3 Heath Miller
Mike Martz failed to listen to the ‘Capper and Greg Olsen was the invisible man during the conference championships. PLEASE Mr. Arians use your TE! Miller torched the Pack last these two teams met (7 catches, 100+ yards) and more can be expected today (MVP anyone?). Over the course of the regular season the Green Bay defense was near the bottom of the league defending the opposing team’s tight end. Whatever Capers chooses to do, if Heath is productive, it will limit the Pack’s defensive options. If Woodsen leaves Ward (or his safety position) and covers Heath, it will take at least one potential blitzer out of the box. If the secondary’s weak linke safety Peprah is used in coverage, then one of the Pitt speedsters (Brown or Sanders) may see single coverage. If a linebacker such as Bishop is slotted to cover Heath, it’s a huge speed mismatch. All of this of course assumes that Ben has time to see downfield. Big Ben has managed to wiggle, spin and shrug away from pressure his whole career. It’s rarely pretty but often effective and the ‘Capper expects more of the same this afternoon. If the Pitt line holds up, Miller will have opportunities.
Conclusion:
Ultimately, the ‘Capper is expecting a very competitive game of few big plays, many punts and little scoring. The big names of Starks, Drive, Jennings, Ward and Wallace are unlikely (IMO) to produce and it will be the two defenses that determine the final outcome. Mendenhall and the offensive line will have sufficient success to allow Ben time for his typical one or two broken play bombs (most likely to Miller, Sanders or Brown).
On defense, Rodgers’ sublime decision making will be challenged. ‘Capper expects LeBeau to provide enough wrinkles to force one or two errant decisions. As the best player in all of football patrolling the secondary, Hair will exploit those mistakes. One turnover is often the difference between two even teams, it will be again today.
Final score: Steelers over Packers 19-17
Special Prop Bets:
Packers:
Brandon Jackson to score a TD +600
James Jones to score a TD +245
Steelers:
Money Line +135
Margin of victory 1-4 +500
Margin of victory 5-8 +700
Margin of victory 9-12 +1000
Brown to score a TD +400
Sanders to score a TD +260
Miller to score a TD +180
See you next season loyal readers.
‘Capper out.
