YTD Season: 7-6-1

Consecutive winning weeks has the ‘Capper breathing above sea level again.  Public continues to view this season through the lens of last year’s results.  It won’t be long before strong performances by the Bills, Lions, and Raiders are no longer seen as surprises.

‘Capper is tired people so lower expectations on the color commentary, witticisms, naughty humor and gratuitous anti-Philly rhetoric.  Atoning can be exhausting.

Need some R&R but won’t miss a week of action.

This week’s selections:

Take the Chargers -3.5 at Denver

Bolts own this series 7-2-1 last 10 ATS coming off flat but steady victory over Phins.  Denver is awful and heading in wrong direction (at least this year) and in ‘Capper’s opinion bad teams tend to sleepwalk into the annual vacation bye week.  Likely to be high scoring contest but Denver can’t be trusted to keep pace given injuries and team psyche.

Take Tampa Bay +3 at San Francisco

‘Capper believes SF will win the vaunted embarrassing NFC West but public showing overreaction with this line.  Comeback over Iggles likely biggest SF regular season victory in a decade so easy to see letdown.  Public views win versus Philly as an indication of strength.  ‘Capper disagrees; Eagles dominating opponents then handing victories away as charity.  Niners are average and will be exposed this week; offense is predictable and Alex lack big play ability.  Bucs 8-0 ATS last 8 as a road dog, 5-0 off a home win and Niners are 1-10-1 ATS following an ATS cover.  Short version: Bucs play great on road and Niners can’t be trusted in consecutive weeks.

Take Falcons +5.5 at home versus Green Bay

Aaron playing brilliant football but ‘Capper believes this line is off.   Falcons coming home for a revenge game after consecutive road contests is a great spot.  Packers facing big step up in class following broken Broncos squad.  Falcons 10-2 last 12 after an ATS loss and close scare versus Hawks should help focus.  Packers secondary can be beaten and this is prime spot for letdown.  If Falcons are the playoff team (Football Outsides predicted 10 wins) many of us believe, then this is the game in which they show their worth.

The NEWSLETTER, a handicapping report with an attitude.

YTD Season: 5-1-1

Strong week 3 showing by the ‘Capper hitting a solid 3 of 4 contests.  As predicted Saints proved too big a step in class for Texans.  Both Raider Nation and the Hawks put up big efforts to earn straight-up home doggie victories.  Only the Bears failed to stay within the number as a brilliant end of game punt return was negated by a phantom holding call.

Story lines aplenty early in this NFL season; in case you’ve missed a few:

Cam justifying all that money he earned in college from his rookie contract

Brady gets a haircut

Vick suffers a boo boo

Chris Johnson dines and dashes

Rex impersonates an NFL quarterback

Romo borrows Wolverine’s healing factor

and…  Eli wins NFC offensive player of the week.  (suck it dream team)

‘Capper back to sea level people and feeling good.   Unlike week 3 where the ‘Capper supported three separate big doggies, it will be a week of big a$$ favorites.  Don’t be scared, lay the lumber and cash tickets.

This week’s selections:

Take the Patriots -5.5 at Raiders

Raiders coming off of biggest regular season victory in recent memory versus what will be an angry Pats squad off surprising defeat to glass slipper Bills.  Unlike Jets, Pats have the aerial attack (Ocho Cinco notwithstanding) to punish the Silver & Black’s post Nnamdi secondary.  Last week, despite final score, Jets put up more yards and first downs.   Turnover battle was difference.  Not this week, lay the short #.

Take Chicago -6.5 at home versus Panthers

‘Capper recognizes that Cam-a-poolaza is the trend but the scoreboard suggest a team that can’t be trusted ATS.  3 games and so far TD losses to both Zona and the Pack followed by the rain soaked attrition battle versus the Jags.  Sandwich game for Bears but ‘Capper expects big effort coming off of loss to champs.  ATS record for rookies on the road is abysmal; turnover battle will be difference and I trust Chicago defense to bring pain and confusion.  Lay the 6 and a hook.

Additional Selection:

Take the San Diego Chargers -7 at home versus Phins

Hard to see what Miami has left; three difficult games all resulting in losses and now a cross-country trip to a non-divisional foe one week prior to the bye.  ‘Capper thinks the 0-3 Phins are already looking ahead to vacation week.  Diego survived versus Chiefs but stats suggested a much less even game (Chargers with +9 first downs and 123 additional yards).  Thus far on the season FootballOutsiders has Miami as the worst defense in the league.  Rivers should have fun.

The NEWSLETTER, a handicapping report with an attitude.

YTD Season: 2-4-1

Awful two week showing by the ‘Capper.  No excuses people.  While the Titans showed up well, Buffalo chose to only play a half a game, Indy grabbed early lead in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes and KC finally kept a game close (for one quarter at least).

Education week in the NFL.  Quite a bit should be learned over the coming 24 hours about the litany of 2-0 teams who failed to reach the ’10 playoffs – the Redskins, Lions, Bills, and Texans.

Skins on the road face Dallas on MNF.  Will Boyz’ be flat after last week’s Romoroics and can the Skins’ offense continue to bring the Rexy back?

While KC showed better than the box score would suggest, Lions had little trouble and now travel as a road favorite within the division for the first time since leather helmets (for football mind you) were in fashion.

The Bills are so damn likable.  Fitz is Rich Gannon re-borne, Stevie Johnson is a stud and Chan Gaily is receiving much deserved praise despite the ‘Capper’s bashing of his hiring nearly one year ago.

The Texans must either have found a genie or incriminating pictures of Roger Goodell.  The Jags dump Garrard, Indy loses Peyton and the Titans are off of 8-8 and 6-10 consecutive seasons.  Major step up in class against Saints this week will prove telling.

‘Capper believes only the Texans will make the playoffs of this quartet though the Lions will be close.

This week’s selections:

Take Saints -3.5 at home vs Texans

A broken Indy team and a sub-par Phins squad will leave Texans unprepared for the offensive excellence of the New Orleans Saints.  Saints meanwhile have been tested with an opening loss to the defending champs and then an easy home victory versus Da’ Bears.  Philips is installing new defense and personnel just starting to adjust; Sean Peyton and Brees will have the edge.

Oakland +3 at home versus Jets

Good spot for a flat performance by the Jets who seemed a bit too excited by the trouncing of lowly Jacksonville and are only one week away from a road game versus rival Baltimore.  Raiders should be steaming after last week’s 2^nd half collapse.  Loss of Jets’ center Mangold will greatly hurt o-line communication allowing Raiders front 7 to generate pressure and limit running game.  Jets may still get the W; but this game will be tight throughout and difference likely will be Sebastian’s big freakin’ leg.

Seattle +3.5 at home vs Zona

Zona’s defense has made both Cam and Rex look like All Pro quarterbacks.  It’s TJack’s turn.  Both teams will score but ‘Capper expecting Carrol to be in full cheerleader mode to have Hawks’ properly juiced for home opener.

Take Bears +4 at home versus Packers

The second of back-to-back home games are always a challenge but even more so when facing a team fiercely wanting revenge.  Packers off two straight close games are due for a lapse versus a Bears team looking to rebound after bad road defeat in Big Easy.

The NEWSLETTER, a handicapping report with an attitude.

Answer me this loyal readers, what do the following lines have in common?

Teddy Bruschi’s comments about Ocho Cinco
Coach Jim Harbaugh’s complaints about lack of highlight coverage for 1-0 Niners
Denver fans tossing up billboards calling for St. Timothy
Panther fans believing Cam is heading to the pro bowl
Donovan McNabb is done
The Colts are headed for Andrew Luck

Holy Overreaction Batman!

‘Capper had a lousy opening week performance people. While the Bills dominated at KC, the Titans were anything but mighty and the Falcons fell even further below the Bears on the food chain. Surprises were many in week 1; Cam was remarkable, Rex was competent, Matty Ice melted, the Ravens soared and Houston crushed old man Kerry.

None of the winners are as good as the public believes and none of the losers are as bad. Throw money on the dogs this week people; overreactions end by week 4, so hurry up and get in line for some action.

This week’s selections:

Take the Titans +6 at home versus Baltimore
Baltimore coming off one of the biggest regular season wins in years against hated rival Steel City sets up well for an upset by a Titans team that underperformed in week 1. Solid system play here: Ravens are 0-12 ATS since October 2000 after a divisional game where they held the opponent < 10 points.

Take Buffalo -3 at home versus Oakland
Bills offense seemed to forget there was an offseason while the re-built defense was solid in away opener at Arrowhead. Raiders alternated wins and losses all last year and let-down after road win versus their most hated rival feels likely.

Take Kansas City +8 at Detroit
Overreaction has reached a screaming pitch with the line on this game. Chiefs looked awful in week 1 at least in part due to an injured quarterback and an incompetent play-calling process that includes 2 coordinators, 1 coach, 2 local talk show hosts and likely a slew of season ticket holders. Haley is a smart guy and Cassel has a solid run-blocking line, a stud WR and an electric running back. This offense will look better. Detroit was impressive in the first week but now will be more than a TD favorite for the first time since the Barry Sanders era. Take the ocho.

Take Indy +2.5 at home versus Brownies
‘Capper unconvinced that Indy is toast; Collins has weapons and we’ve seen he has a rapport with all world Wayne. This team will rally for home opener. Browns offense has potential but little big play ability and defense remains a question as it transitions to new scheme. Close game here but Indy rallies (at least for one week).

The NEWSLETTER, a handicapping report with an attitude.

There are those who have claimed nothing was lost this past offseason. They point to a largely intact preseason (Hall of Fame game notwithstanding) and a normal kickoff weekend and shout down those among us who felt cheated by CBA-related distractions.

F them.

I love the stretch between the annual draft and the first preseason (so-called) game.  There are OTA reports, contract disputes, rookie hazing, and free agent rumors.  There are radio talk show hosts with homer predictions and the callers offering equally biased support.  And of course, there are the clichés.  The wonderful clichés…

They’re on the hot seat.

<insert team name> faces a make or break year.

<insert team name> might be this year’s Cinderella story.

So let’s quickly re-cap our abbreviated offseason with an abbreviated run down of what was stupid, which teams might surprise and who to place some action on for the opening week of the National Football League.

The stupid:

Plax; stop doing interviews.  You were in jail for shooting yourself with a gun that you had smuggled into a nightclub.  I’m sorry Coughlin did not cuddle you and Eli failed to write.

Bears; hugely under cap yet you permit your o-line to weaken and bring Roy Williams to boost WR group?  Bad case of the Martz.

Arian Foster; no more tweets please.  Be seen not heard.

Colts GM/Owner; massive contract with $50M+ of guarantees and you did not think to have a doc glance at Manning’s neck?

Redskins’ Shanny; Beck versus Grossman is not Montana versus Young.

Surprises:

Browns: Brownies in the playoffs?  Outside of home division, schedule is weak (thank you NFC West) and both diminished Colts and Jags on the calendar.

Cardinals: Cards win the West?  Nucleus of prior successful teams remains in place and free agent additions Bradley and Kolb suggest the one team in the miserable NFC West who wants to win this year.

* side note: Lions are a trendy pick to post a winning record and make playoffs. ‘Capper thinks 9-7 is very possible; however, hype from media on the return of the roar likely will ruin any spread value.

Fantasy:

By the end of this year you will know the names of offensive players: Julius Thomas, Jared Cook, Andre Roberts, Ed Dickson, and David Nelson.

This week’s selections:

Take Titans -1.5 at Jacksonville:

Jaguars on ‘Capper’s early “sell” list.  Despite playing a Titans team in full reformation (new coaching staff, new offensive strategy, new defensive alignment and new quarterback), all the ‘Capper needed to see was Hasselbeck versus 8 yr back-up Luke McCown to toss his support on the road team.

Take Buffalo +5.5 at Kansas City:

Remove Charlie Weiss and replace the ’10 schedule (among easiest in league) with the ’11 schedule (among hardest) and this will be frustrating year for Chiefs fans.  Bills can score points and were a better road than home team last season.  Fitz might be current generation version of Rich Gannon if given a couple of more years in the same system.

Take Atlanta -2 at Chicago:

Road favorites tend to be losing propositions but ‘Capper likes the QB matchup here and the potential for a lopsided turnover differential.  Cutler’s o-line was actually worse this preseason than during the end of the ’10 campaign (not easy thing to do).  It was time for Kruetz to move on but a shortened offseason likely has impeded o-line communication with new center Garza.  Cutler’s weapons are weak (particularly without Olsen) and Atlanta’s pass rush should be much improved.  Matty Ice versus Cutler?  Lay the deuce.

The NEWSLETTER, a handicapping report with an attitude.

Playoffs: 7-3

Overall: 37-28-0

Welcome loyal readers to the last dance of the 2010-2011 NFL season.  The ‘Capper has posted a solid record with a particularly strong performance over the playoffs.  However, finding cash on Super Sunday offers a different challenge.  It is not difficult for professionals to find value over a typical Sunday card.  There is sufficient variety to isolate nuggets of opportunity.  Even the playoffs offer enough choice to play against public sway and poorly placed “conventional wisdom.”  The Super Bowl is different.  Betting value tends to lie not in the side but rather in the exceptionally robust list of proposition bets.

To crush the books on Super Sunday the ‘Capper has long applied a simple approach.  Tell yourself a plausible story as to how the game might transpire and bet high-odds proposition bets that support that story.  Don’t hedge with bets counter to your narrative, avoid wagers of random chance (e.g. coin flip) and limit dead money from betting against yourself (e.g. multiple wagers on which player might score the first TD).

What’s the ‘Capper story?   The magical ride of Mr. Rodgers and his pack of cheese comes to an end in a closely fought defensive battle.

This week’s selection:

Take the Pittsburgh Steelers +3 versus the Green Bay Packers

I’m sure rookies across the country are stuck with +2.5 on this game; they deserve to get crushed for not shopping for a better number.  Let me start by offering that this line feels wrong and strikes the ‘Capper as more of a reflection of public hype than on the field reality.  These two teams are very even and in fact, over the last month the Steelers have performed at a higher level (due to caliber of competition; check out www.footballoutsiders.com).  The numbers suggest the Steelers to be the better overall team, with vastly more playoff experience, a harder 2010 schedule and clear rushing advantage.  However, it’s not always just in the numbers so…putting the number aside, what matchups sway the ‘Capper to the doggie?  Read and learn.

#1 Mendenhall will have success today

The much maligned Pittsburgh offensive line deserved it’s share of ridicule over the course of the year as the pocket repeatedly disintegrated around Big Ben.  The public discourse is that the Steelers’ weak and injured offensive line will prove ineffective versus the Capers’ led front 7.  While, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that Ben will face pressure during passing downs, the ‘Capper is unconvinced that the same will be true when the ball stays on the ground.

Beyond young Pouncey, both tackles, back-up Scott and ancient Flozell “Leg Whip” Adams were solid much of the year during drive blocking situations.   In fact, Pitt was seventh in the league on runs to left end, while the Packers were 19th against them; meanwhile, Pittsburgh was fifth on runs to right end, where Green Bay was 16th.   Don’t ask these guys to pull, hit the 2^nd level or take on a speeding corner, but straight ahead against an opposing end or linebacker and these guys got the job done.  Ask the Jets.  (I’m already nauseas knowing we will have to hear commentators say, “this is Steelers football” the first time Mendy takes a carry for 4 yards off tackle)

#2 Pittsburgh Special Teams

On kickoffs we have one of the worst coverage units in the league (Green Bay) versus one of the better return units in the league (Pitt).  If this game holds to form, it means that Ben will start drives from his own 32 yard line.  Expect the Pack to start back inside the 25.  It does not sound like much but it will require one extra first down by Green Bay per drive to reach scoring position.  With two high quality defenses, one unconverted 3^rd down is meaningful.  On field goals we have two solid performers and Pitt is the better of the two teams on punt coverage (advantage was bigger before Sepulveda went down with an injury).

#3 Heath Miller

Mike Martz failed to listen to the ‘Capper and Greg Olsen was the invisible man during the conference championships.   PLEASE Mr. Arians use your TE!  Miller torched the Pack last these two teams met (7 catches, 100+ yards) and more can be expected today (MVP anyone?).  Over the course of the regular season the Green Bay defense was near the bottom of the league defending the opposing team’s tight end.  Whatever Capers chooses to do, if Heath is productive, it will limit the Pack’s defensive options.  If Woodsen leaves Ward (or his safety position) and covers Heath, it will take at least one potential blitzer out of the box.   If the secondary’s weak linke safety Peprah is used in coverage, then one of the Pitt speedsters (Brown or Sanders) may see single coverage.  If a linebacker such as Bishop is slotted to cover Heath, it’s a huge speed mismatch.  All of this of course assumes that Ben has time to see downfield.  Big Ben has managed to wiggle, spin and shrug away from pressure his whole career.  It’s rarely pretty but often effective and the ‘Capper expects more of the same this afternoon.  If the Pitt line holds up, Miller will have opportunities.

Conclusion:

Ultimately, the ‘Capper is expecting a very competitive game of few big plays, many punts and little scoring.  The big names of Starks, Drive, Jennings, Ward and Wallace are unlikely (IMO) to produce and it will be the two defenses that determine the final outcome.  Mendenhall and the offensive line will have sufficient success to allow Ben time for his typical one or two broken play bombs (most likely to Miller, Sanders or Brown).

On defense, Rodgers’ sublime decision making will be challenged. ‘Capper expects LeBeau to provide enough wrinkles to force one or two errant decisions.  As the best player in all of football patrolling the secondary, Hair will exploit those mistakes.  One turnover is often the difference between two even teams, it will be again today.

Final score: Steelers over Packers 19-17

Special Prop Bets:

Packers:

Brandon Jackson to score a TD +600

James Jones to score a TD +245

Steelers:

Money Line +135

Margin of victory 1-4 +500

Margin of victory 5-8 +700

Margin of victory 9-12 +1000

Brown to score a TD +400

Sanders to score a TD +260

Miller to score a TD +180

See you next season loyal readers.

‘Capper out.

Playoffs: 6-2

Overall: 36-27-0

Packers v Bears and Jets v Steelers.

Good stuff.

The playoffs are nearing conclusion and the remaining teams are all solid.  ‘Capper tends to rely on specific matchups at this point in the season as motivation, health and schedule timing tend not to have relevance.  Let’s jump into the games.

This week’s selections

Take the Chicago Bears +3.5 at home versus the Green Bay Packers

Bears likely are the least respected #2 seed in recent memory.  A home dog more often than not throughout the year and despite hosting a Wildcard #6 seed, Da’ Bears find themselves the target of much public distrust.  7 wagers are being placed on the Pack for every 1 for the Bears.  As readers of the NEWSLETTER know, that’s enough to get the ‘Capper’s interest.

3 reasons (besides the spread) to like the Bears.

Special Teams – This is the one gaping flaw in the Packers arsenal.  Cutler will have shorter fields with which to operate and Hester is a constant threat/distraction.

Tampa 2 base defense – Bears tend to play either the Tampa 2 or Cover 3 Shell (extra safety) and provided Chris Harris is a go, this will allow them to minimize big plays.  Aaron will have to be patient and ‘Capper is betting Bears pass rush will generate at least one hurry or sack per drive to force punts.

Greg Olsen – He showed up in a big way during the Seattle contest and ‘Capper expects more of the same versus Pack.  3 ways this can go if Martz makes Olsen a focal point.  If Pack use Woodsen to cover this guy, Bears offensive line can focus blitz protections toward Mathews allowing Cutler time to go through his reads.  If Pack elects to go nickel to use a corner or safety on Olsen, then I like Bears chances at running the ball.  If Pack instead try and cover Olsen with a LB, good luck.  PLEASE Coach Martz, use this guy – he can be a game changer.

‘Capper acknowledges that Green Bay feels destined to play for this year’s Lombardi trophy; Rodgers has been eerily accurate and the defense might be best remaining in the playoffs.  However, this line feels crazy.  This is a #2 seed at home on slow turf with eons of experiences against a divisional foe; a 3-4 point home dog strikes the ‘Capper as insanity.  Take the points.

Take the Steelers -4 at home versus the Jets

‘Capper has earned a lot of money thanks to the J.E.T.S. but the magical run ends here.  Steelers simply the better team across all relevant dimensions.

Quarterback edge – Steelers

Playoff experience – Steelers

Defense – Steelers

Special Teams – Steelers (Nick Folk anyone?)

Neither team will succeed running the ball so game may be decided by a few downfield pass plays.  Big Ben versus The Sanchize.  Not even a contest; Mark might eventually be a solid quarterback but his current lack of accuracy will be his ruin tomorrow.  Only with playaction has he shown ability to hit big plays and absent any successful running attack, hard to see Troy or Ike biting on trickeration.

Jets have had a remarkable journey – I don’t recall an NFL team calling their shots during training camp ultimately to find themselves in a conference championship game.

The one advantage the Jets have mimics the Ravens of a week ago; the NY front 7 versus the Pittsburgh offense line.   ‘Capper expects a TE and a back to remain in the Pitt backfield for extra protection while Ben dances, shrugs and spins until Mike Wallace or Emmanuel Sanders find space.  That will be the difference.  Lay the 4.

‘Capper out.

Playoffs: 4-0

Overall: 34-25-0

Can the ‘Capper get an amen?

As much loathing as we’ve heaped upon the alleged pigskin punditry, the ‘Capper must give thanks.  For it is in part due to the blathering across the likes of Bradshaw, Aikman, Simms, Buck and Ditka that folks like me can earn a return.  Schedule timing dictates a great deal in the NFL and only an artist develops a sense for that special rhythm.  “Any given Sunday” is a cliché as old as the very sport it describes; any one team can beat another as the gap between best and worst in the NFL is too small, the bounce of the ball too unpredictable and the impact of a single play too influential to perfectly predict a single game’s outcome.  Last weekend was bad timing for the Eagles, Saints and Chiefs.  Can you hear the rhythm for this week?

This week’s hype reflects the same poor thinking that led to so many Wildcard round “surprises”.   Are the Seahawks to be this year’s Cinderella? Are the Pats really unstoppable?  Naah.

This week’s selections

Take the Chicago Bears -10 at home versus the Seattle Seahawks

The Saints lost IMO since they underestimated the 7-9 Hawks, were injured at key positions and failed to bring defensive pressure.

Did the Da’ Bears pay attention?  Check, Check, Check.

The Bears watched the Saints debacle, are healthy, motivated and accustomed to the big stage.  Hawks on the road have been an embarrassment just 2-6 ATS this year and 3-14 ATS dating back to ‘08.  Hasselbeck won’t survive all 60 minutes, Bears are able to compete in special teams and offensively will provide heavy dose of Matt Forte.  This one will be very ugly.

Take the Jets +9 at New England

All the world is talking about trash talk and 45-3 expecting the Pats to continue their recent dominance over all opponents.  ‘Capper recognizes that blowouts between two experienced and solid divisional opponents are VERY rare.  Hoodie not winning by margin come postseason having failed to cover his last 5 playofff games.  The ‘Capper remembers that the Jets won the 1st game and once you add revenge, hard not to see competitive game.  9 points assumes a blowout; ‘Capper doesn’t buy it.

Take the Packers at Atlanta UNDER 43.5

Love the public dialogue; all one hears about this game is Aaron Rodgers versus Matty Ice, an aerial extravaganza as shotgun formations, multi-receiver sets and deep passes dominate the playcalling.  Not a chance.  I-formation for the Falcons and full-house for the Packers will be the norm as running plays and defense prove the story for this game.  Falcons tend not to generate big plays; even the stars like Turner, White and Gonzo often earn their salaries within 15 yards from scrimmage.  Both teams feature solid secondaries, effective special teams and conservative coaches.  Add two quarterbacks with quick releases and solid decision skills, and interceptions should be minimized.  Hard to see OVER without big plays and trends back that up as high flying Pack ‘under’ 11-6 on the season.  This should be a great close game but the scoring will be lower than anticipated.

Additional Selection:

Take the Ravens +3.5 at Steelers

Everyone knows the recent history of these two divisional rivals.  They play close games.  Last four meetings all decided by exactly 3 points and the doggie has been 6-1-1 ATS last 8 in series.  Ravens IMO won both games this year; the second showed differently on the scoreboard thanks to the game-ending strip sack by Troy. Undoing of Steelers in this game will be offensive line; Ben extends plays but one devastating sack/fumble will prove difference.  In a departure from prior meetings, ‘Capper expects a lot of shotgun 3 WR sets from Ravens who attempt to provide Flacco and his talented WRs extra time.  3 and a hook is too much to pass up.  Neither team will succeed on ground and game winner likely to come from defense.  Ben will take more hits and one of them will hand game to Baltimore.

‘Capper out.

Playoffs: 0-0

Care to dance?

The pigskin postseason is upon us loyal readers.  Four entertaining matchups from which the public can generate a cornucopia of made-for-tv story lines.

Will Rex finally beat Peyton?

Can the Jets live up to the preseason, regular season, four seasons, add seasoning hype?

Who else did Favre harass in the Jets organization?

Will every storyline be Jets related?

The near unanimity of the talking heads triggers the ‘Capper’s gag reflex.  The average NFL analyst crew now holds more roster spots than the average NFL team; yet, parity remains supreme even among the “experts”.   We get it!  Yes, it’s a long flight from New Orleans to Seattle, it should be loud in Kansas City, Peyton’s performance will likely determine outcome versus NY and Vick is a walking, sprinting, galloping controversy.  Phew.  Can we discuss real stuff now?

This week’s selections:

Take the Seattle Seahawks +10.5 at home versus the New Orleans Saints

This likely won’t be a popular pick but the ‘Capper ain’t looking for votes, just cash.  The difference between a chimp and a person is 1% of genetic code (or so I’m told – last science class was high school).  Same might be said for NFL teams.  Take any two NFL teams, assume absolute maximum motivation and perfect health and you’ll find a very close game.  We have a ‘Hawks team that is undeniably inferior to the returning champs; however, the cocktail is right for the doggie to bite.

Motivation

Hawks: No pressure, rah rah coach, home field, hosting the champs

Saints: Might Super Bowl complacency have champs look ahead?

Health

Hawks: Not a single reported injury

Saints: 3rd string RB, several missing defensive starts, missing TE

Saints have been a terrible road favorite last few years – 6-13-1 last 20 ATS.  Saints just not supportable at this number given inconsistent play, an underperforming defense and an awful special teams unit.  Mike Williams and Leon Washington alone can generate 14 points for the Hawks.  Add another 10~ and we have a cover.  Grab the points.

Take the Baltimore Ravens -3 at the KC Chiefs

KC was a popular selection among sharps all year; with a forgiving schedule (thank you NFC West), a seasoned coaching staff and a steady running game, 10+ wins seemed within reach.  It was.  This is where the story ends as worst to first teams often stumble with their box step upon reaching the dance.

Nothing fancy about this selection.  Ravens simply have faced superior competition and have performed with greater consistency form start to finish.  KC had the chance to feast upon the likes of Denver (twice), St. Louis, Seattle, and Arizona all during the season’s 2nd half.  In fact, KC only faced two playoff teams (Indy and Seattle) all year.  This team has not been tested and yet will face a Ravens team that played 6 playoff teams this year along with another 10 win squad (Tampa Bay).

I won’t spend much time on matchups here.  If the Ravens were playing the version of the Chiefs we saw during the season’s opening half, I might have a different perspective.  The second half Chiefs declined substantially both on defense and special teams.   Ravens should win field position battle and will over-commit to stopping the run (particularly to offensive right side where KC is strong and Baltimore is weak).  Cassel has proven ‘Capper wrong with steady play much of the year, but the weapons don’t exist here for him to carry the day.  Ravens beat this team up, win war up front and use turnovers and a steady diet of Ray Rice (and Derrick Mason) to win by margin.

Take the Eagles versus the Packers UNDER 46.5

Two very good teams meet in Philly and real question for ‘Capper is whether Packers have any gas left for this game.  Green Bay competed in two play-in games just to earn the trip to the Linc.  Eagles meanwhile have rested, both physically and mentally, in preparation for a revenge home game.  Great spot.  Hesitation to back the kids in green stems from two places:

* The ‘Capper hates them with the red hot intensity of a 1000 suns

* Rodgers will have open WRs down field; he single-handedly can read a coverage, line up his protection and release a well-timed dart to any of his four very capable WRs.

Alas, ‘Capper expects a Philly surge from the gate, a great Pack half-time speech and a second half battle between two very solid defenses.  Both teams generate pressure and have solid secondaries.  Public expecting a shootout pushing # past 46.  If this game is close, it’s the defenses not the much-hyped QBs that will dictate the pace.

Fat Andy is all about defense in the playoffs.  During his tenure, he’s hosted nine playoff games; Six of those games fell under 37 and none have ever passed 43. Packers meanwhile have permitted 15 points/game during 2nd half of the season.  Love when the public pushes a number up, up and away…

Additional Selection:

Take the Jets ML +110 at Indy

Foot fetish, Hard Knocks, DUI, Jen Sterger, Tripping…  Since the Raiders of a generation ago have we seen an NFL team this rife with scandal perform this well?  It doesn’t matter, this team is solid (though not close to as good as Rex would have us believe).  ‘Capper sees similarities between Indy and Pack; does Peyton’s Place have anything left?

‘Capper’s opinion on this game admittedly is weak as neither outcome would surprise.   Arguments for Jets are as follows:

• Should win field position all day; vastly superior special teams both kicking and returning.
• Indy secondary is awful; expecting Sanchez to have time in the pocket against Tampa 2 and to have wide-open WRs.  Whether he accurately can hit those WRs is the game-deciding question.
• Indy faced vastly inferior competition over course of regular season.  Jets are better tested.

X – factor: Expecting Manning to be in shotgun 3 WR/1 TE sets ALL day.  Jets’ secondary is weak behind Cromartie and Revis and Indy will focus efforts accordingly.   Will White and Tamme make enough plays?  Methinks not.

Bet the least-likable team in the NFL.  Jets on the money line.

‘Capper out.

Take KC -4.5 at
home versus Titans Betting public thinks Titans have leveled the
listing ship with W over hapless Texans. Me no think so. Coach
Fisher is moving on, locker room divided over VY and there are no
playoffs in sight. Line is short due to last week’s revenge win;
but that was first victory since October. KC meanwhile on verge of
first playoff appearance since 2003. This game will swing on
turnovers and a big rushing edge for KC. Expect Collins to suffer
greatly and fantasy fools by all means start Bowe, Charles and even
Thomas Jones.

Take Cleveland +3.5 at home versus Ravens Easy to see
letdown as Ravens fresh from success against defending champs.
Browns playing last meaningful game should bring juice against
division rival. Once upon a time game between old and new Browns
would have elicited real media attention but years of Browns
underperformance has taken sizzle from this matchup. Colt avoids
mistakes and running game will eat clock; Ravens returned to
reliance on Ray which should only further shorten game time and
lower total. Lower point total favors the doggie here. Browns have
been competitive all year and this will be there Super Bowl. Take
the points.

Additional Selections:
Cincinnati v Bolts under 43
Rams v Zona over 39.5

Happy Holidays people, ‘Capper out.